THE RUSSIA UKRAINE CONFLICT: A Geo-Political Background I

GEOPOLITICAL BACKGROUND

For a while now I've been pondering HOW to post about the Russia-Ukraine War and its global economic & Geopolitical implications. Attempting to cover such a huge topic is not easy. Crucial is "WHERE" and "WHEN" to start.

• Where? = the Middle East
• When? = 1973

It's October 1973 (Ramadhan 1393) and the young state of Israel was fighting the combined Armies of Egypt & Syria (the 4th Arab-Israeli War). After initial Arab success military aid from the US however gave Israelis the upper hand. Meanwhile, in Riyadh, 1500 km south of Jerusalem, King Faisal of Saudi Arabia was worried. Faisal didn't join other Arab states to attack Israel. But he couldn't stand idle while Israel wiped two fellow Arab countries off the geopolitical map. He was aware that the US was the main supporter of Israel. But he could not forget that the US was also his biggest trading partner and his real protector against military aggression from the other Arab states and Iran. 

So while He & other Arab countries planned an Oil Embargo on the US & some of its allies, it was an extremely risky decision that could backfire. But desperate times require desperate measures. Faisal was desperate and Oil was the only "weapon" at his disposal. So he used it. 

On 20th October 2022, a day after President Nixon made a request to congress for a $2.2 billion military aid package to Israel, Saudi Arabia and other Arab OPEC Member states placed an embargo on Oil exports to the US and a few others that were helping the Israeli war effort.

The effects were almost instantaneous. In less than six months, the embargo resulted in a 300% rise in global Oil prices that sparked the 1973 global energy crises and the first global Oil Shock).

Some 10,000 km west of Riyadh, the effects of the embargo was acutely being felt in the White House. US President Nixon imposed drastic measures to reduce oil consumption. Among other rationing policies, a nationwide speed limit of 55 mph was imposed on all cars. Some European countries even imposed a 3 day work week and a ban on driving on sunday. Needless to say, these policies had little effect. US President Nixon tasked his National Security Adviser, Henry Kissinger, to resolve it. 

Kissinger sent a telegram to Faisal, hinting that if the Oil embargo was not lifted, the US would use military force to seize the Arab oil fields. Having read the telegram, Faisal's only response was "خير انش الله" loosely translated as "Good, if God wills it." With such a disdainful response from the King, Kissinger now had no choice than to go in person to apply further "diplomatic" pressure. 

Kissinger was an academic and perhaps the first PhD holder to hold the position of National Security Adviser to the most powerful man in the world. 

 

Warriors tasked with making Peace

Despite his nerdy or geeky image as a University lecturer, Kissinger would earn a fearsome reputation as a tough negotiator. An expert in Machiavellian RealPolitik, he had fought in the second World War (WWII) and thus never afraid of War. He would go on to serve two US presidents as National Security Adviser & later Secretary of State.

The Jewish American Diplomat encounters an anti-zionist Arabian Monarch

He was allegedly involved in a military coup in Chile & gave approval for Argentina's military dictatorship to implement its "dirty war". Ironically and controversially, he and Lê Đức Thọ jointly won the 1973 Nobel peace prize (the same year he was threatening to bomb Saudi Arabia) for efforts in ending the Vietnam war. Lê Đức Thọ however refused the award for reasons to lengthy to cover here.

In any case, Kissinger's threats & tricks failed. In response to the threats, Faisal said "...the Americans can't live without their cars & electricity". If the US bomb the Oil fields, the Arabs can easily return their former desert way of life. Faisal grew up without oil or electricity. And he wasn't a novice in diplomacy. His father, King Abdulaziz "Ibn Saud" had sent him on his first diplomatic mission to London at the age of 14. From age 16, he was fighting beside his father in the wars that created the current Kingdom of Saudi Arabia - for over a decade he slept in tents, living on only dates & camel's milk. Neither the threats nor the tricks had any visible effects on the now 60yr old Faisal. 

Kissinger had to back down & the US turned to more "polite" means to try lifting the embargo. By March of 1973, the embargo was lifted but not before showing to the world and to Faisal, that Oil could now be used as a weapon of War.

In November 1973, the the Saudi Oil Minister, Ahmed Zaki al-Yamani granted an interview in Copenhagen where he explained that the Oil embargo is only the tip of the iceberg. Referring to the Embargo that crippled the US, Europe and Japan, Yamani said what they "...did was nothing at all." 

"What we have as an Oil weapon is far greater than what we did. What we did was nothing at all"

The whole world had witnessed the first effective use of the Oil weapon. It would not be the last.

That was 1973.

By now you should be asking what connects all this desert history with a 2022 European War between Russia & Ukraine?

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